Felix Hernandez deserves Hall of Fame vote

There was a time when it seemed as though Felix Hernandez would cruise into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. He entered the majors at 19 years old, dominating almost immediately and becoming one of the top aces of his generation. 

For the next nine years, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Then King Felix lost his dominant form in 2016, getting progressively worse in each of the last four seasons of his career. From his final All-Star season in 2015 through 2019, he went from a  2.14 ERA in 2014 to a 3.53, 3.82, 4.36, 5.50 and 6.40 ERA. 

Because of that downward spiral, it will take Hernandez a while to get into the Hall of Fame. That’s if he gets there at all. His nine-year peak, however, is enough to receive my Hall of Fame vote.

After more than a decade of crowded ballots from the PED era, the ballots haven’t had many surefire Hall of Famers since Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling fell off the ballot after the 2022 election.

Ichiro Suzuki and Billy Wagner time

At least two players on this ballot appear set for Cooperstown, N.Y., though. The only question about Ichiro Suzuki is whether he’ll join Mariano Rivera as the only Hall of Famers to go in as unanimous selections by veteran members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Billy Wagner, who fell five votes shy of induction in the 2024 election, should make up that ground on his 10th and final year on the BBWAA ballot.

When considering players, I judge them against their contemporaries. When you think of Wagner, you know he was one of the greatest relievers of his era. He fits in well with Rivera and Hoffman. Ichiro, who had 3,089 hits, was the best leadoff man of his time in the majors.

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For nine of his 15 years in the majors, Hernandez was one of the top aces in baseball. Hall of Fame voters are allowed to vote for as many as 10 players. I traditionally use all 10 votes. Each year I compare the men on the ballot against their peers, pitting them first against the players at their position.

In this exercise this year, you have Hernandez against Mark Buehrle, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia on the ballot. I would pick Hernandez to start Opening Day in this rotation. Sabathia would be my No. 2 starter, followed by Pettitte and Buehrle.

There aren’t enough “Hall of Famers” per se on this ballot to think you can pick only Sabathia or Hernandez. You can pick them both and still have eight slots left for worthy candidates. He was 169-136 with a 3.42 ERA and 2,524 strikeouts. The record will cost him votes.

Fortunately for Hernandez, most voters know that it’s ridiculous to place too much value on “wins” or losses for starting pitchers. A pitcher can throw nine brilliant innings of one-run ball and still lose if the offense is bad. 

Yet, a pitcher can earn a victory despite giving up five runs in five innings on a night. Let’s look at the case for Hernandez, a six-time All-Star. Hernandez won two ERA titles. He also won the 2010 American League Cy Young Award.

Perfect Felix Hernandez

Hernandez also finished second in the Cy Young Award races in 2009 and 2014. He finished second to Zack Greinke in 2009 despite posting a 19-5 record with a 2.49 ERA. Then five years later he finished behind Corey Kluber despite posting a 15-6 record with a 2.14 ERA.

Imagine posting a 2.14 ERA with 248 strikeouts in 236 innings over 34 starts and finishing second. That Cy Young race was close with Kluber getting 17 first-place votes. Hernandez received the other 13 first-place votes that year.

Hernandez also threw a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on Aug. 15, 2012. Hernandez had six consecutive seasons with at least 200 strikeouts. That streak is tied for the eighth longest in MLB history. During his peak of 2006-2015, he posted the best fWAR of any pitcher at 50.1, ahead of Justin Verlander (49.4), Clayton Kershaw (47.1) and Sabathia (43.4).

Was Hernandez’s nine-year peak enough to garner a spot in Cooperstown? It’s surely not enough to get in on the first ballot. His road to Cooperstown will be more like Mariners legend Edgar Martinez, who needed all 10 years on the ballot, than Seattle legends Ichiro and Randy Johnson. 

Nonetheless, Hernandez deserves to get into the Hall of Fame eventually.